In the face of a daunting challenge from Manchester City’s superior performance in the second half, Manchester United experienced a setback with Erling Haaland’s two goals and a decisive contribution to Phil Foden’s score in the recent derby. Opta, utilizing advanced analysis incorporating factors like betting odds and Elo-based ratings, projects a potentially disheartening remainder of the season for Manchester United, foreseeing a finish as low as eighth, a position they currently occupy.
This projection is significant as the 13-time Premier League champions have never finished lower than seventh in the Premier League era. The last time they ended below seventh was during David Moyes’ tenure in the 2013/14 season, where they finished in seventh place. The most drastic fall in their history was to 13th in the 1989/90 season, following a strong start but a subsequent struggle, reminiscent of their recent three-goal loss to their Manchester rivals.
United’s history includes a silver lining, such as their victory in the FA Cup during a season they finished 13th. However, a similar finish this season, coupled with their recent derby defeat, might spell the end of Erik ten Hag’s tenure at Old Trafford, even with an EFL Cup in his first season.
Despite the potential eighth-place finish being relatively generous, it reflects United’s underwhelming performance, particularly in the recent derby. City’s dominance in that match is emphasized by their second-highest expected goals (xG) figure in the Premier League this season, with United leading for only 98 minutes in the current campaign.
While United faces challenges, Manchester City is on course for a historic achievement – a fourth consecutive Premier League title. Despite currently holding the third position, they are just two points behind league leaders Tottenham Hotspur. Interestingly, Arsenal, sharing points with City, is not considered the main challenger; that title goes to Liverpool, according to Opta’s projections.
