The rivalry between Manchester City and Manchester United is usually settled on the pitch, but the latest twist appears to have unfolded off it. As the 2025/26 season moves into its decisive stretch, City manager Pep Guardiola has reportedly voiced private doubts about United’s push to secure a top-four finish and return to the Champions League.
United currently sit fourth on 48 points following an upturn in form under interim boss Michael Carrick. Their resurgence has reignited belief among supporters, yet Guardiola is said to question whether they possess the squad depth and mental resilience needed for a high-pressure run-in. With strong competition from Aston Villa and Chelsea, the margin for error remains slim.
According to reports, Guardiola has identified five fixtures that could shape — and possibly derail — United’s ambitions. A demanding away trip to Newcastle United on March 4 is viewed as an early test. St. James’ Park has been an unforgiving venue this season, and Newcastle’s intensity could expose any signs of fatigue or inconsistency.
An April 18 clash at Stamford Bridge against Chelsea looms large as well. With the London side only three points adrift, the encounter could directly influence the race for fourth. Guardiola allegedly sees it as a psychological examination as much as a tactical one.
The May 2 visit of Liverpool to Old Trafford presents another hurdle. Derby matches are inherently volatile, and Liverpool’s quick transitions may trouble United’s defensive structure. A March 15 home meeting with Aston Villa is also significant, particularly given Unai Emery’s disciplined and organized approach, which could frustrate United’s expansive style.
Finally, a season-ending trip to Brighton & Hove Albion on May 24 could prove decisive. The Amex Stadium has challenged many visitors, and the pressure of needing a result on the final day might weigh heavily.
Despite the doubts, United’s recent 2-0 derby triumph over City offered encouragement and renewed belief. Still, the standings underline the tight race: Arsenal lead on 61 points, City have 56, Villa 51, United 48, and Chelsea 45. With so little separating the contenders, even a minor slip could reshape the top-four picture.
